As Election Day nears, the most up-to-date available polling data for seven battleground states show former President Donald Trump and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris in a virtual dead heat. In new AtlasIntel polling, the former president edges the would-be senator by an imperceptibly small 1.8 percent, winning on 49 percent to her 47.2 percent, a slight lead. It reveals that Trump leads over Harris in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin-the states whose result may tell the tale of the winner of the 2024 presidential election.
Trump Leads Harris by Huge Margins in All Seven Swing States
According to the AtlasIntel’s November 1-2 poll conducted with nearly 2,500 likely voters-mostly women-it depicts that Trump leads Harris in all seven swing states:. In Arizona, Trump leads with 6.8 percent, with 51.9 percent against Harris’s 45.1 percent. Nevada is in the same direction, where Trump is at 51.4 percent while Harris has 45.9 percent. North Carolina is a state that leads by 3.6 percent for Trump, who is on 50.4 percent over 46.8 percent for Harris. These states have very close margins in past elections, so every vote will count. For instance, in 2020, Joe Biden swung Arizona by only 10,000 votes further emphasizing the importance swing states would play this election cycle.
Polling Trends Shift as Election Day Nears
On October 29, a very different picture is painted in a Reuters/Ipsos poll: Harris leads Trump by a 44% to 43% margin. Yet Harris’s earlier leads have been shrinking as Election Day approaches; her supporters and campaign strategists are becoming increasingly anxious. Both campaigns have been ratcheting up their efforts in these battleground states, so this turning of momentum on November 5 may make all the difference.
Analysis of the New York Times and Siena College Poll
Yet another poll from The New York Times and Siena College brings still another slice of perspective. Harris trails by only 2 points in Nevada, 4 in North Carolina, and by the same sort of margin in Wisconsin as Trump in that state. The survey has reached 7,879 likely voters, so there is broad variability in the choices by state and the potential for a very close race or even upset in certain parts of the country.
Early voting trends:
Early voting data gives another dimension to the dynamics of the race. Thus far, about 40% of likely voters in these swing states have voted early, and Harris leads those early voters by 8 points. But Trump has very strong support among voters who say they will vote on Election Day. That could flip the final tallies in these closely contested states, since late-deciding voters tend to sway close races.
Related: Early Voting in Texas: 10 Surprising Benefits You Can’t Afford to Miss!
Pennsylvania: The Momentum Shifts
In the all-important swing state of Pennsylvania, the polling momentum has shifted recently in Trump’s favor. Harris leads in the New York Times polls have moved to Trump, making this state a toss-up. A close contest in this state could well decide the national election because this state carries huge electoral votes and normally holds crucially close elections.
Last Push for the Election
Just days before Election Day, Trump and Harris are set to step up their last-minute camp efforts to woo undecided voters. In the past few days, Trump had campaigned in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia, while Harris is focusing much of her efforts on Michigan in a bid to build momentum. Both campaigns are pulling out all stops to sway voters in the swing states where the race remains too close to call.
As voters in these battleground states make their final decisions, the nation prepares for one of the high-stakes election nights this one has possibly ever been with a potentially unpredictable and closely fought outcome.